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FUEL HEDGING & NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE (October 25, 2025)

PRICES HIGHER – INVENTORIES HIGHER VS. FIVE YEAR AVERAGE AND

HIGHER VS. EXPECTATIONS – PRODUCTION LOWER – DEMAND HIGHER

EXPORTS HIGHER – RIG COUNT UNCHANGED

Price Changes:

  • Spot price increased by $0.296 per MMBTU (+9.84%).
  • Forward price for the year decreased from a $1.157 premium to $0.928 premium.

Key Market Drivers:

  • LNG Exports: Reached an all-time high, contributing positively to price increases.
  • Inventories: Increased by 87 Bcf, exceeding expectations and the five-year average.
  • Demand: Increased by 2.97% compared to the previous week, with demand currently 5.51% higher than the five-year average.
  • Production: Decreased by 0.14%, but still higher than the previous year.

Market Indicators:

  • Rig Count: Stayed stable at 121 rigs.
  • Hedge Favorability Index: Dropped to 13.84% from 15.41%, signaling reduced hedging attractiveness.

Outlook:

  • With the approaching heating season, demand is expected to rise, which could introduce more price volatility.


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FUEL HEDGING & PETROLEUM MARKET COMMENTARY  (October 25, 2025)

PRICES HIGHER – CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION LOWER – INVENTORY LOWER -

DOLLAR HIGHER – STOCK MARKET HIGHER – SPECULATION UNAVAILABLE -

DEMAND HIGHER

Price Changes:

  • Diesel: Increased by +$0.2231 per gallon (+10.23%).
  • Gasoline: Increased by +$0.0850 per gallon (+4.63%).

Key Market Drivers:

  • Sanctions on Russia: New sanctions on Russian petroleum and natural gas exports are pushing prices up.
  • Inventories: Decreased by 4.59 million barrels, supporting price increases.
  • US Domestic Production: Slight decrease of 7,000 barrels per day, down to 13.629 million bpd.
  • Demand: Increased by 1.46% compared to the previous week.
  • Geopolitical Factors: The truce between Israel and Hamas has helped reduce geopolitical risk and stabilize prices.

Market Indicators:

  • Rig Count: Increased by 2 rigs, signaling more oil wells in development.
  • Dollar Strength: The stronger US dollar (up by 0.53%) is generally negative for oil prices.

Outlook:

  • The market is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical risks, global production levels, and fluctuating demand.



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