New Updates
FUEL HEDGING & NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE (September 7, 2026)
PRICES MIXED – INVENTORIES LOWER VS. FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE AND HIGHER VS. EXPECTATIONS – PRODUCTION HIGHER – DEMAND HIGHER – EXPORTS HIGHER – RIG COUNT LOWER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY LOWER
Price Movement:
- Spot price increased by +$0.087 per MMBTU
- Forward price decreased by -$0.001 per MMBTU
Key Drivers:
- Inventories: Lower than the five-year average but higher than expectations, creating mixed price pressure
- Production: Increased to an all-time high, adding supply pressure
- Demand: Increased on the week and remains above the five-year average, supporting prices
- Exports: Increased, providing additional price support
- Rig Count: Lower, reducing future supply expectations and supporting prices
- Speculation: Less negative as traders reduced short positions, adding upward price pressure
Market Indicators:
- Hedge Favorability Index: Decreased slightly to 21.84% from 21.89%, indicating slightly less favorable hedging conditions
- Forward Curve: Remains positively sloped but less positively sloped than the prior week, which provides some price support
Forecast:
Natural gas prices remain mixed as strong demand, higher exports, and lower inventories versus the five-year average support prices. However, record production, higher-than-expected inventories, and seasonal cooling demand declines may continue limiting upside potential.
FUEL HEDGING & PETROLEUM MARKET COMMENTARY (September 7, 2026)
PRICES HIGHER – CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION HIGHER – INVENTORY LOWER – DOLLAR LOWER – STOCK MARKET HIGHER – SPECULATION HIGHER – DEMAND LOWER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY LOWER – EXPECTED PRICE VARIABILITY/CASH FLOW AT RISK LOWER
Price Movement:
- Diesel: Spot +$0.2912, Forward +$0.0790
- Gasoline: Spot +$0.1644, Forward +$0.0652
Key Drivers:
- Iran Conflict: Continued attacks and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz are limiting oil flows and supporting higher prices
- Sanctions: US sanctions continue pressuring Iran’s economy while maintaining supply uncertainty
- Diesel Supply: Russian diesel export restrictions and damaged refining capacity continue tightening global diesel markets
- Russia/India Supply: Potential Russian crude supply to India could increase global availability and pressure crude prices lower
- OPEC+ Production: October production targets remain unchanged
- China Demand: Higher refinery demand from China is supporting prices as supply remains uncertain
- Production: Domestic crude production increased, creating some downward pressure
- Inventories: Lower inventories supported prices
- Speculation: Increased, supporting upward price movement
- Demand: Lower demand created some negative pressure
Market Indicators:
- Hedge Favorability: Lower, indicating less favorable longer-term hedging conditions
- Price Risk: Lower expected variability compared with prior periods
Forecast:
Petroleum markets remain driven by geopolitical risks, especially around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Continued supply restrictions and diesel shortages may keep prices elevated, while alternative supply routes and potential Russian crude flows may limit further increases.