New Updates
FUEL HEDGING & NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE (June 15, 2026)
PRICES MIXED – INVENTORIES HIGHER VS FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE AND HIGHER VS EXPECTATIONS – PRODUCTION HIGHER – DEMAND HIGHER – EXPORTS HIGHER – RIG COUNT LOWER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY HIGHER
Price Movement:
•
Spot: -$0.109/MMBTU
•
Forward: -$0.008/MMBTU
Key Drivers / Analysis:
• Prices remain pressured by high inventories and steady production, despite stronger demand.
• LNG exports improving as Freeport normalizes, supporting fundamentals.
• Forward curve remains upward sloping, signaling near-term softness.
• Hedge favorability rose to
22.80%.
Demand:
• +6.72% WoW | +4.85% YoY | +9.38% vs 5Y avg
Production:
• +0.52% WoW | +3.85% YoY | +12.09% vs 5Y avg
• Rig count:
121 (-3 WoW)
LNG Exports:
• +1.43% WoW | +29.09% YoY | +48.33% vs 5Y avg
Inventories:
• +108 Bcf vs +100.56 expected
•
2,686 Bcf (+5.96% vs 5Y avg)
Speculation:
• 376.4M MMBTU net longs (-56.2M WoW)
Forecast:
Mixed outlook: demand and LNG exports supportive, but elevated inventories and steady production keep prices range-bound.
FUEL HEDGING & PETROLEUM MARKET COMMENTARY (June 15, 2026)
PRICES MOSTLY LOWER – CRUDE PRODUCTION HIGHER – INVENTORIES LOWER VS EXPECTATIONS BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE – DOLLAR LOWER – STOCK MARKET HIGHER – SPECULATION LOWER – DEMAND HIGHER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY HIGHER
Price Movement:
•
Diesel: Spot -$0.1830/gal | Forward -$0.0696/gal
•
Gasoline: Spot +$0.0039/gal | Forward -$0.0443/gal
Key Drivers / Analysis:
• Prices pressured by easing geopolitical risk as Strait of Hormuz reopening discussions improve flow expectations.
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest level since 1983, limiting supply buffer.
• Crude production and drilling activity increased, while exports remain elevated.
• Market balancing improved flows, but uncertainty remains on how quickly supply normalizes.
• Hedge favorability increased across both diesel and gasoline amid improved forward pricing conditions.
Demand:
• US petroleum demand +1.31% week-over-week
• +3.47% year-over-year | +7.04% above 5-year average
Production:
• Crude production +92,000 bpd WoW
• US oil rigs:
433 (+2 WoW, near 1-year high)
Inventories:
• -7.24M barrels WoW vs -2.75M expected
• Total inventories:
743.7M barrels (-6.60% vs 5Y avg)
Diesel:
• Spot -18.30¢/gal | Forward -6 to -9¢/gal
• Hedge favorability:
5.67% (up from 2.54%)
Gasoline:
• Spot +0.39¢/gal | Forward -4 to -6¢/gal
• Hedge favorability:
6.16% (up from 5.47%)
Speculation:
• Net long positions:
-7.23M barrels WoW (-3.54%)
• Speculation now 26.51% of inventories
Forecast:
Market expected to remain volatile but range-bound: geopolitical normalization pressures prices lower, while low inventories vs seasonal norms and steady demand provide underlying support.