New Updates
FUEL HEDGING & NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE (March 16, 2026)
PRICES MIXED – INVENTORIES HIGHER VS. FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE AND HIGHER VS. EXPECTATIONS – PRODUCTION LOWER – DEMAND LOWER EXPORTS HIGHER – RIG COUNT HIGHER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY LOWER
Price Movement:
- Spot price decreased by $0.055 per MMBTU
- Forward price increased by $0.034 per MMBTU
Key Drivers:
- Middle East Conflict: The ongoing war in Iran continues to disrupt LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. Prices have increased by 59% in Europe since February 27th, but U.S. prices are mostly steady due to maxed-out export capacity.
- Production & Exports: U.S. production increased slightly, but export capacity limits prevent supply reductions from directly impacting prices.
- Weather Impact: Warmer temperatures reduced heating demand, which negatively affected prices.
- Inventories: Higher than the five-year average, which is negative for price growth.
- Rig Count: Increased slightly, indicating more supply, which can negatively affect prices.
Market Indicators:
- Hedge Favorability Index: Decreased to 20.38%, down from 21.54%, indicating less favorable conditions for hedging.
- Speculation: Increased on the week, which is positive for prices.
Forecast:
- Natural gas prices are expected to remain steady, with mild demand during the end of the heating season and current export capacity maxed out.
FUEL HEDGING & PETROLEUM MARKET COMMENTARY (March 16, 2026)
PRICES HIGHER – CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION LOWER – INVENTORY LOWER - DOLLAR HIGHER – STOCK MARKET LOWER – SPECULATION HIGHER - DEMAND HIGHER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY LOWER – EXPECTED PRICE VARIABILITY/CASH FLOW AT RISK HIGHER
Price Movement:
- Diesel: Increased by $0.3923 per gallon
- Gasoline: Increased by $0.2948 per gallon
Key Drivers:
- Strait of Hormuz: The closure of this vital waterway is causing the largest supply disruption in history, keeping petroleum prices elevated. If the Strait reopens, prices are expected to decrease rapidly.
- US Actions: U.S. military action targeting Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal could limit Iran's oil exports, pushing prices higher due to reduced supply.
- Global Reserves: The International Energy Agency announced the release of 300-400 million barrels from reserves to stabilize the market, which may decrease prices in the short term.
- US Waivers: The U.S. granted India a waiver to buy Russian oil, adding to the unsanctioned market supply and negatively affecting prices.
Market Indicators:
- Stock Market: Decreased by -1.56%, negative for oil price expectations.
- US Dollar: Increased by +1.39%, negatively impacting oil prices.
- OPEC Production: Increased by 640,000 barrels per day during February, contributing to a higher surplus in the market.
Forecast:
- The ongoing geopolitical risk, especially related to the Persian Gulf, is expected to keep petroleum prices volatile. However, increased production from OPEC and strategic reserve releases may provide some price relief.