New Updates
FUEL HEDGING & NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE (February 2, 2026)
PRICES SPIKE HIGHER – INVENTORIES LOWER VS. FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE AND LOWER VS. EXPECTATIONS – PRODUCTION LOWER – DEMAND HIGHER EXPORTS LOWER – RIG COUNT HIGHER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY LOWER
Price Movement:
- Spot price increased by $0.745 per MMBTU (+20.64%)
- Forward price increased by $0.057 per MMBTU
Key Drivers:
- Exports: Decreased, providing downward pressure on prices.
- Inventories: Decreased compared to expectations, positive for prices.
- Production: Lower for the week, supporting higher prices.
- Demand: Increased due to colder temperatures, significantly driving up prices.
- Rig Count: Increased slightly, which is negative for prices.
Market Indicators:
- Hedge Favorability Index: Decreased to 21.59%, down from 22.81%, showing less favorable conditions for hedging.
- Speculation: Increased for the week, which supports higher prices.
Forecast:
- The cold weather and high demand will likely continue creating volatility in prices, especially with LNG exports lower and inventories tightening.
FUEL HEDGING & PETROLEUM MARKET COMMENTARY (February 2, 2026)
PRICES HIGHER – CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION LOWER – INVENTORY LOWER - DOLLAR LOWER – STOCK MARKET HIGHER – SPECULATION HIGHER - DEMAND HIGHER – HEDGE FAVORABILITY LOWER
Price Movement:
- Diesel: Increased by $0.3071 per gallon (+12.65%)
- Gasoline: Increased by $0.0718 per gallon (+3.88%)
Key Drivers:
- Iran Risk: Tensions in the Persian Gulf are a major factor driving prices up, with the potential for supply disruptions.
- OPEC+ Actions: Maintaining production quotas steady through March, with a slight drop in production.
- US Imports: Increased crude oil imports from Venezuela are offsetting some of the supply risks.
- Cold Weather: Shutting in oil production in Texas and the Gulf Coast, which limits supply and increases prices.
- Demand: Increased, particularly for diesel due to higher heating demand in the Northeast.
Market Indicators:
- Stock Market: Increased by +0.35%, supporting economic optimism and petroleum prices.
- US Dollar: Decreased by -0.62%, which is positive for petroleum prices.
- Speculation: Increased, further supporting upward price movement.
- Production: Lower by 36,000 barrels per day, which is supportive for prices.
Forecast:
- Geopolitical tensions, cold weather impacts, and rising demand will likely keep upward pressure on petroleum prices, despite some longer-term production increases.